Soda ash industry - losing money for a year is still losing money. What should I do?

Drying equipment

If you want to ask which chemical industry's days are not so good this year, soda ash should be one. At the 2013 China Soda Industry Association 2013 General Meeting, many business executives complained that the topic of surplus, loss, and production restriction became the focus of the participants' discussions and caused collective reflection from the industry.

This year's situation is very bad

"Overall we can't see the bottom. Now it's more difficult than at any time." This was the most heard word when reporters interviewed Soda Enterprise.

According to the report of Wang Xiling, president of the China Soda Industry Association, despite the economic downturn in 2012, the increase in the output of main products downstream of soda ash has been significantly reduced, and some ammonia and alkali enterprises have reduced their production. However, domestic soda ash production is still increasing substantially, and the market is obviously producing more than it sells. This led to the continuous decline in the price of soda ash and huge losses in the entire industry. Statistics show that in 2012, the domestic soda production totaled 24.01 million tons, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year. Of the major production enterprises, 12 ammonia-alkali enterprises suffered a loss of 83.3%, and the loss amounted to 2 billion yuan. 31 losses of the soda ash business reached 54.8%, and the loss amounted to nearly 1.2 billion yuan. In the first quarter of this year, the loss situation continued. As the price of ammonium chloride dropped, sales volume decreased, inventory increased, and some of the coal companies that had profited last year also suffered losses; the losses of ammonia-alkali companies intensified.

Wang Xiling’s statement was confirmed by some corporate leaders, and the most influential stocks and low prices made them feel the same way.

Li Fenghua, deputy general manager of Dahua Group Co., Ltd., said that due to the unstable operation of the equipment, the Dahua Group produced only about 400,000 tons of soda ash last year, and the production capacity was about 70%. Both foreign trade and domestic sales prices are not high. Recently, they feel that the market price is still falling, while the market competition is becoming increasingly fierce.

"Now we don't want to ship anything. Stocks are already incredibly high. Last year, the company's economic benefits were decent and it is currently in the most difficult period," said Zeng Xiaoping, president of Sichuan Hebang Co., Ltd. According to his analysis, on the one hand, there is too much social possession, and on the other hand, the downstream demand has shrunk compared with the previous ones. In particular, since the second half of last year, after the soda ash in the northwest region came, the price in the southwest region declined linearly. Now the ex-factory price of light alkali is very low, only 1150 yuan / ton, heavy alkali is only 1250 yuan / ton.

"This year's difficulty is far greater than last year. I don't feel that I can see the light. I even joked with some of my colleagues that selling soda ash is so difficult that we quickly switch to business. Now the total inventory of domestic soda companies has reached more than 1 million tons. In the future, no matter whether the company stops production or cuts production, this amount will all go to the market.” Zeng Xiaoping’s helplessness.

A responsible person of Zhongbang Debang Chemical Co., Ltd. stated that the company’s profit in the first half of last year was still good and it began to decline in the second half of the year. In view of this, last year they cooperated with China National Salt Corporation and set up a new project company, Zhongdu Debang, to build a synthetic ammonia project in the new district of Lianyungang, including urea, compound fertilizer, etc. Soda has not been done very much, because this industry has already " It's not fun."

This year's change in market for soda ash byproduct ammonium chloride can not be ignored.

The soda ash of Huai'an Wal-Mart Chemicals Co., Ltd. is mainly for supporting their glass industry. Zhu Changhong, deputy general manager of the company, mentioned that the market situation this year is more severe than last year, mainly because the pressure of ammonium chloride is very high and unprecedented. With inventory. As the production capacity is still increasing, he is very upset about the future.

Tang Shun, general manager of Henan Jinshan Chemical Co., Ltd., said that from January to February of this year, the company was fairly decent, and its March report has not yet come out, but the situation is not optimistic. Last year, Lianhua was profitable because the price of ammonium chloride was slightly higher, but this year's situation is different. In March and April of last year, ammonium chloride was once a day's price, but this year's ammonium chloride price did not rise or fall, resulting in the difficulty of the joint alkali business. “The two days of my colleagues are talking about when the crisis has passed, but I think it has just begun.” Tang Shun said.

Li Qingju, deputy director of Lianyungang Soda Plant of Sinopec Nanhua Company, said: “Our output last year was 1.027 million tons, and the loss was serious. In 2013, our planned output was 1 million tons. The group company demanded that we limit our losses to 120 million yuan this year. But from Looking at the situation in the first quarter, it is very difficult to achieve this goal.” The rise in rail freight rates has caused some western soda ash companies to fail.

After entering 2013, the situation of Zhongyan Qinghai Kunlun Alkali Industry Co., Ltd. is not optimistic. Their current inventory is about 180,000 tons, but this figure is still rising. Yang Shuhong, deputy general manager of the company, said that when the company started the project, it put the company in Qinghai, but after the project was completed, it felt that the market was under pressure. Although they have multiple salt mines and limestone mines, the disadvantages of market competition are also very obvious, that is, the transportation costs are particularly high. Especially after this year's rail freight has been raised by 0.015 yuan/ton km, transportation costs have become an important bottleneck restricting the subsequent development of the alkali industry in Qinghai.

Blind investment brewing

Wang Xiling analyzed that in the context of the overall economic downturn, the pressure on the soda ash industry was far greater than that of other industries. In the trends of soda production and sales, from the beginning of last year to the end of the year, the two lines have maintained a large distance. Some new plants and large-scale soda mills can't reduce their inventory at all times. Under the big pattern of production that exceeds sales, product price reduction is inevitable. “At the membership conference a year ago, we called on the industry to limit production by 20%. However, the result of the implementation was that the output not only did not decrease, but it increased to an average of 2.01 million tons per month from October to November last year. This disregard of the overall situation, ignoring the overall situation The practice of economic laws has caused the entire industry to be warned and punished by the market, said Wang Xiling. Why can't inventory be reduced? It is generally believed in the industry that profit drive has led to blind investment in the soda industry.

Ding Chaoran, deputy general manager of Jiangsu Jingshen Salt Chemicals Co., Ltd. believes that soda ash is the most basic chemical raw material, which determines that it cannot be a profitable industry. At the same time, the soda ash industry's technical threshold is not very high, as long as there is money to enter, which is doomed to the company should operate in an ordinary and reasonable profit margins, profit margins can maintain 15% is very good. In the past few years, the soda ash industry has made huge profits. There are unreasonable factors in it. It is also because of the huge profits of previous years that stimulated the desire for investment. Coupled with the irrational decisions of some managers, they always feel that their competitiveness is strong, they have the advantage of resources and financial advantages, and they can squeeze others, causing the current industry surplus and losses.

Zhou Xuequan, deputy general manager of Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., also stated that in recent years, driven by profits, some upstream and downstream companies have entered the soda industry. Looking from a downstream perspective, many glass companies, including Zhejiang Glass Group and Shandong Jinjing Technology Co., Ltd., have entered the soda ash industry and launched projects with an annual production capacity of several hundred thousand tons or even millions of tons. The production has been basically reached; Taiwan Glass Industry Group Corporation will build a soda plant with an annual production capacity of 1 million tons this year, further exacerbating the excess of this industry. He also believes that the unreasonable layout is also an important reason. “At present, there are several areas where raw salt resources are developed, such as Jiangsu and Qinghai, and many alkali plants have been launched at once. However, there are not many customers in the region. This is tantamount to predatory exploitation of resources, but the effect is not good. Zhou Xuequan said.

Some enterprise leaders also stated that the pursuit of political performance by local governments is an important reason for stimulating new construction and expansion projects.

Qing Lei, Deputy Chief Sales Officer of Qinghai Alkali Industry Co., Ltd., said: "I think that limiting production is necessary. We have also been working hard to report the limited production plan to the provincial government, but it has not yet been successful."

Zhu Changhong also emphasized that the state hopes that the soda ash industry will restrict production, and that companies also have this plan, but the local government hopes that their soda ash projects will continue to increase investment in the next year, and the number is large. Zhou Xuequan believes that local governments are different from countries and associations in considering, for example, the issue of GDP and the placement of workers. Therefore, there will be some degree of homelandism.

Li Qingju said: "I think the current situation of the industry is very normal, both reasonable and expected, and it is the result of the 'joint efforts' of the entire industry. It is in line with the laws of the market and is also an inevitable result of the extensive domestic economic development. With the continuous progress of society, after the urbanization process in China is completed, the demand for soda ash will be drastically reduced and the production capacity will be even more surplus. When the industry rises, there will be a time of decline. In 2011, the whole industry made a huge profit, and now the downturn is also Normally, there is a movie line saying that - out of the mix, sooner or later it is necessary to return. The construction of so many enterprises is caused by ourselves. The bitter fruit we brewed must be swallowed by ourselves."

Survival of the fittest is the key

Nowadays, in the face of the difficult status of the soda industry, what effective measures should be adopted to change this situation?

Wang Xiling believes that for more than 60% of soda ash companies, the difficult situation of loss has continued for more than a year. In the case where the market output is greater than sales, price competition is fierce, and business losses are serious, the limited production is a smart choice. However, restricting production is only an expedient measure, and all companies must adopt new technologies, new technologies, and new equipment as means to reduce energy and raw material consumption and costs, and promote their own sustainable development.

In response, many soda ash companies stated that they must strictly control the operating rate from their own perspective in order to respond to the call for production restrictions. Some companies have put forward their own suggestions. Fuxi Quan, general manager of Shandong Haihua Co., Ltd., said that they have taken the initiative to reduce the operating rate from 74% in 2012 to the current 70%. The current monthly production does not exceed 175,000 tons. This is mainly due to two considerations: First, in today's market environment, the production of a lot is a lot of loss, not necessary; second is to honor the promise, and there is the possibility of further restrictions on production.

Yang Shuhong told reporters that the company intends to respond to the industry association’s limited production call and do a few things: First, the company has already adjusted its production capacity. Although it can reach production, it has not started at full capacity. Second, as a new enterprise, they From the angle of production costs, it actively explores technical reforms and strives to occupy a place in the market through high-quality products. Third, the company is planning to use a dedicated container line to try to reduce transportation costs through the advantages of container costs. Fourth, it is actively seeking with its counterparts in the Mainland. High-level cooperation, whether in technology or in the market, has begun a full range of cooperation.

Ding Chaoran stated that if the industry wants to develop healthily, the limited production and guaranteed price is only one aspect. Enterprises that have high production costs and high energy consumption should also be eliminated and let them withdraw early. This will benefit enterprises, industries, and countries. If they allow them to make endless losses, until they are insolvent and unable to dispose of them, it is still the country that loses. Therefore, he believes that for companies with huge losses, relevant departments should help them withdraw. The state may introduce policies and give support funds to enterprises that should withdraw but have difficulties; peer companies may also provide them with some help to jointly maintain a good market environment.

Ding Chaoran also suggested that the country should establish a comprehensive evaluation mechanism. First of all, to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the industry, including what kind of manufacturing costs are normal, what is the reasonable price of soda ash to sell, etc., to avoid blind profits caused by blind investment. Secondly, it is necessary to evaluate which areas are suitable for the development of soda ash industry and which areas are not suitable for development, and to implement zoning management and regional limited approval. Again, evaluate the current business situation. Enterprises that cannot predict profitability in the future should be encouraged by the government to withdraw from them; enterprises that have higher levels of technology, management, and safety and environmental protection should adopt policies to encourage development.

Many companies also believe that the upward movement of approval power is the key to controlling new production capacity and resolving difficulties.

Zhou Xuequan stated that which project is making money now, everyone has swarmed in. The decentralization of the approval authority has also contributed to blind investment. If the government administers the approval power of the soda project to the national level, such as the joint approval of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Environmental Protection, and the Soda Ash Industry Association can also participate in comments, the situation may change. Ren Jingyong, general manager of Henan Quanyi Fluid Control Technology Co., Ltd., said that it is in place to digest excess production capacity, limit production, and dumping behavior of US soda ash, but these measures are only temporary. From the perspective of internal upgrades, the industry should combine upstream and downstream enterprises and service companies to establish alliances, improve internal structures, improve competitive strengths, and reduce operating costs in order to achieve product upgrades and survival of the fittest.

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