Analysis of the four major trends in China's wind power industry

The “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” with Chinese characteristics has achieved many industries, and the pursuit of nearly five-year development in China’s wind power industry can only be achieved with two words in the Western wind power equipment industry. History - shocked.

Looking back at the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”, the development trend of China’s wind power can be summarized by the following five phrases: land-based wind power, explosive growth in the domestic market, and scale-up to quickly reduce costs, bring in theories to independent research and development, and rapid fan upgrades.

Facts have proved that which company will follow the trend and which companies will stand out. As the saying goes, a glimpse of the whole leopard, today - the first Monday of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", we discussed the development trend of wind power in the next five years through the development strategy of China Wind Power leading enterprise Huarui Wind Power.

The trend of a high-speed expansion of offshore wind power during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" was recognized by the industry as the first year of offshore wind power in China. This year, the first offshore wind demonstration project, Shanghai Donghai Bridge, was put into operation, and the National Energy Administration initiated the first batch of large-scale offshore wind farms.

Huarui is the earliest operator of offshore wind power. The Donghai Bridge project is 100,000 kilowatts, and all intertidal zone in Jiangsu province is 600,000 kilowatts. It is 3 megawatts at sea, 5 megawatts, and 6 megawatts will be produced in the first half of next year. As well as the 10 MW wind turbines under development, the main battlefield is at sea.

Han Junliang, chairman of Sinovel Wind Co., Ltd., said: “In the future, China’s offshore wind power will be supported by 5 MW, 6 MW or even larger units, as in Europe.” In the five strategies of Sinovel Wind Power, there is “integration of offshore wind power services”. The formulation of "reification" not only has its own team but also builds its own ports and terminals.

Just when the offshore wind power curtain was just opened, the voice of questioning also followed. Many experts prefer to pursue a “steady” strategy, arguing that China’s development of offshore wind power does not make money, technology does not pass, and it is too aggressive.

Do you not know that Europe has been quietly preparing offshore wind power for 10 years, and now it has developed an installed capacity of about 3 million kilowatts, which can be described as a 10-year sword. The United Kingdom has a strong 7,000 offshore wind development plans by 2020, and the United States has a roadmap for wind power development in 2030. The development of wind power in China has shaken the leading position of Europe and the United States. In order to maintain its own advantages, offshore wind power will inevitably become its next all-powerful technical commanding point. At this juncture, China cannot stop. Otherwise, we will not be able to meet it again. Han Junliang predicts that “2012-2013 should be the period when offshore wind power is expanding at a high speed. I believe that our share of offshore power supply in the future will exceed 30%.”

When it comes to the price of offshore wind power, the general view is that the first round of offshore wind power won the tender price too low (0.6-0.7 yuan/kWh) and would not make money. This does not have to worry. When onshore wind power just started bidding, the electricity price is very low. The first phase of national concession bidding is 0.38 yuan/kwh, the second phase is 0.41 yuan/kwh, and the third phase is 0.42. -0.45 yuan / kWh, the fourth phase is 0.45-0.5 yuan / kWh, and ultimately formed 0.51-0.61 yuan / kWh, so this tender is the country's starting at sea pricing, can not be used as the basis for future development of offshore wind power.

The trend of the second wind turbine unit who can launch large-scale units at a faster speed will take over the commanding heights of the market, at least for the time being. Many domestic wind power machine companies are just like the arms race. The first two years are still dominated by kilowatt-class wind turbines, and now 10 megawatts have been in full swing. The interval between fan upgrades is getting shorter and shorter.

What about the international situation? We can see that the average stand-alone power in Britain, Denmark, and other European countries has reached 2.5 megawatts. China has not yet reached an average of 2 megawatts, and it should be at 1.6 megawatts. Han Junliang said: "China's means to achieve its global leading goal is to increase its size, and large-scale development is the only way for the development of global wind power."

Recalling the history of China's equipment manufacturing industry, large-scale development has always been accompanied by our technological progress. Taking the thermal power unit as an example, it was a 500-kilowatt thermal power unit that took up the majority 20 years ago. It later expanded to 100,000-kilowatt and 200,000-kilowatt units. It took about 20 years to produce 200,000 to 300,000 kilowatts, with a transitional product in between. It is 330,000 kilowatts, and the 330,000 kilowatts unit has stabilized for a period of time and has rapidly grown to 600,000 kilowatts. It took 4 years from 330,000 kilowatts to 600,000 kilowatts, and it took 3 years to develop from 600,000 kilowatts to 1 million kilowatts. So large-scale is the process that every product field has to go through since the industrial revolution.

China's annual output of steel is close to 700 million tons, and it is far ahead in the world. Looking back at our 20-year road to steel development, our steelmaking furnaces have also grown from 20 cubic meters, 30 cubic meters to 50 cubic meters, and later to 100 cubic meters and 200 cubic meters of cooperation between Baosteel and Japan. After the fourth phase of Baosteel, we created 5,500. Cubic world's largest boiler.

Han Junliang said: “The iron and steel industry and thermal power plants have gone through a very painful old road and wind power can no longer go. Now the country has also realized that the State Council document No. 38 clearly stipulates that priority should be given to the development of 3.0 MW turbine technology and encourage the development of technologies above 3.0. It is the conclusion that China has drawn from the experience of industrial development in the past."

Trend Three grids are friendly and automated. Each time the grid proposes new requirements to wind farms, it will promote the innovation of wind turbine technology. Wind turbines will adapt more and more to the new control model of the power grid, and the degree of automation will be higher and higher.

Wind power grid connection has long been a bottleneck for the development of wind power in China and even in the world. There are many reasons for difficulties in grid connection. However, from the viewpoint of wind turbines, when the grid gradually adapts to wind farms, wind turbines must adapt to the requirements of the grid. Low voltage ride through capabilities.

At present, industry standards and national standards for wind power integration in China are being established, and stricter standards are bound to be implemented. Wind turbines with poor grid connection function directly affect the interests of wind farm developers, and it is imperative to increase the grid connection capability and automation level of wind turbines.

Low-voltage ride-through, fully automatic fire-fighting systems, and fully automatic cabin-level video detection will make the high-tech features of wind turbines increasingly evident.

Trend 4 Towards the international market Whether it is desired or not, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, Chinese wind power companies will formally face both domestic and foreign markets. Han Junliang said: "China's wind power equipment manufacturing enterprises have all walked toward the world. This is a development path that cannot be avoided."

If the success of China’s wind power companies is based on the explosive growth of the domestic market today, then whether or not China’s wind power companies will succeed tomorrow depends on how their international markets are developed. The domestic market and the domestic economy will eventually fluctuate. Bright west side, the stable development of enterprises can not be separated from the international market, which is not much to say.

Domestic wind power companies have more or less prepared to enter the international market. Goldwind claims that 30% of its revenue comes from overseas markets, and Sinovel has set short-term goals in 2011, planning sales to exceed total The amount of 10-15%, the future of its internationalization to reach 30-50% to support the development of the "Twelfth Five-Year" by internationalization.

Han Junliang said: "I personally feel that China's wind power is actually a child of ten years old. The wind power in the world is two or three years older than us. We are entering the international market just around the corner."