In 2015, the imported auto market will maintain a growth rate of 10%. In the face of the quarterly decline of the imported auto market this year, what will happen in the future in 2015? According to the "2015 China Imported Auto Market Operation Strategy Report" released by SINOMACH and China Import Auto, the growth rate of China's imported auto market will continue to fall, and it is unlikely to continue the way of pursuing high growth in the past. The increase is around 10%. If the domestically produced models in the imported car market are released earlier than expected, there may be a first-digit single-digit growth in the past five years.
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SINOMAC believes that the next decade will be a crucial period for the determination of the new auto market. It will face various changes, including the consumption environment and business model, including the impact of e-commerce on the future, including policy changes. .
Specific to the supply of new products, from the fourth quarter of this year to the first half of next year, about 60 new cars will be put on the Chinese market, of which 70% are cars, 36 are new models, but the import volume will not be large. From the perspective of the model, the introduction of compact SUVs, high-performance cars and coupes will accelerate, and the trend of imported cars in the direction of individualization and new energy is more obvious. The "Report" also predicts that as sales-grade imported models continue to be domestically produced, the supply-driven market will continue to weaken. This shows that the localization of imported models has a great effect on the growth rate of the imported car market and will have a great impact. The "Report" also suggested that there is still a huge market risk in the imported car industry. The main reason is that the high expectations and high supply of automobile manufacturers have caused the overall high inventory phenomenon in the imported car market. Due to the long adjustment cycle of imported cars, and the number of cards on the market since October this year has only increased by 2.7%. It is expected that the inventory of imported car industry will remain at a relatively high level in the first half of next year, and the price of imported car terminal market will maintain a relatively high preferential rate. For dealers, it will go through a difficult period.
Ding Hongxiang: The imported auto market faces three new challenges. When talking about the future development of the imported auto market, Ding Hongxiang, deputy general manager of China National Machinery Industry Group and chairman of SINOMACH, believes that the imported auto industry will face three new challenges in the future. He called 2015 a new year, the first year of deepening reform of the automobile industry. It has three new characteristics, namely the new normal, new policies and new models. This is also the three new challenges facing China's imported auto industry.
The first is the new normal of the Chinese economy. Ding Hongxiang said that since the beginning of this year, China's economy has maintained a steady growth trend of medium and high speeds, and new contradictions and new problems in economic operations have increased the downward pressure on the economy. At present, China's economy is in the stage of “three-phase superposition†in which deep-seated contradictions are prominent and the economic growth rate shift period, structural adjustment pain period, and early stimulus policy digestive period. Specific to China's imported automobile market, supply exceeds demand, the dominant position of multinational auto companies is further strengthened, and high inventory in the industry and dealers choose to exchange prices, etc., has become the new normal. Moreover, he believes that the impact of this new normal on the entire imported car market has just begun. The continued decline in the growth rate of imported auto markets this year and the fact that it has not stopped is an important manifestation.
Second is the new policy of the automotive industry. This year, relevant departments have issued a number of policies related to the automotive industry in light of new developments in the industry, and a series of new policies will be introduced next year. The policy will mainly move from industrial development to the track of legal construction, comprehensively promote the decentralization of government, perform government functions in accordance with the law, give play to the role of market decision-making, create a level playing field, promote the transformation of energy strategy, and promote the construction of ecological civilization. . These new policies will definitely have a long-term impact on the imported car market.
The third is to explore new models of the market. Ding Hongxiang said that the automobile industry has reached a critical period of transformation and upgrading, and the adjustment of a series of industrial policies will accelerate the diversified development of the automobile circulation industry. However, he also believes that the interaction between technological innovation and market demand is the driving force behind the healthy development of the imported automobile market. Along with the deepening reform of the automobile industry, the deep adjustment of the automobile market, the full market competition of multiple formats, and the challenge of diversified sales and service models, the imported car industry must not only continue to innovate existing brand authorizations and future unlicensed business models. There is also a need to think about and explore new model innovations brought about by technological changes in the Internet and the mobile Internet. Under this circumstance, how to cope with and balance the relationship between manufacturers and jointly create a good industrial ecological environment requires the industry to jointly discuss.